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vorteks

Since the Europen Union expanded north east in 2004, a part of Russia stand now right in the middle of E.U. Nobody today contest officially that Kaliningrad is a russian territory, even if some germans would expect what they call Königsberg to become independant and be renamed Prussia.

But this territory is now so far from mainland Russia that russians can t travel there easily, except by boat. With time, there will be an increasing discrepancy between the buying power in the surrounding states (Poland and Lithuania) and isolated russians living in Kaliningrad.

Isn t there a risk that an independant identity develops in Kaliningrad with a special local language and culture that would lead to a claim for independance and the constitution of a new republic similar to baltic states? Do russians regard this piece of land as historicly russian?

gonzock · Lounge Lizard Joined: 17 Feb 2005 Posts: 101

Defenitely there will be a problem with that territory since EU is now giving lots of money to Lithuania and Poland and will "soon" start catching up with the economic growth of the rest of the countries in the EU. Also yesterday the prime minister of Ukraine announce that want to be part of the EU and NATO. I don´t know about the real situation there, but from the ignorance and knowing a little of human being behaviours, I would say that probably there´s many people living there that think that becoming part of EU will help their economies

vorteks · Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2005 9:56 pm Post subject:

Indeed, Ukraine and Georgia officially asked to join EU, but Brussels is not in a hurry to accept for several reasons :

- The integration of 10 new countries last year and 2 new countries in 2007 (Bulgaria and Roumania) poses many problems of delocalisation of investments and taxes competition. It will take at least 20 years for those countries to reach the western countries level of living. Accepting more countries would seriously endanger E.Us stability.

- Regarding Ukraine, Kiev is a russian historic center and E.U aims to develop harmonious relations with Russia in the future, as a neighbouring independant economic zone. They feel Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia as too bound to the russian culture to integrate them without risking territorial conflicts. Russia always needed satellites countries for its security, those 3 countries have this historic role. This is why I think the presence of american bases in those countries is a mistake.

- Turkey has been knocking at E.U s door for 20 years now and wouldnt understand that those countries get a priority after all the efforts they did to harmonise they legislation to european standards. A poster recently was speaking about the russo turkish economic axis, and i think E.U would prefer this option that would include Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia.

From what I can understand, the coherence of the european construction is not only economic, but also cultural and historic. What binds all the current states is christianity, this is why Turkey s integration is so difficult to accept for some populations, even tho this is a laic republic.

gonzock · Lounge Lizard Joined: 17 Feb 2005 Posts: 101

I agree. One of the things we have in common in Europe is christianity (even though not many believe or practice any religion nowadays). The other thing we have in common is the legacy of the greek philisophy. Jesus built are heart and Aristoteles our head.
Why turkey isn´t yet in EU? probably last things I mention don´t care a lot because people forgot what we have in common and only think of a bigger market to compete with US, Japan and coming India and China. I think people care more about human rights in Turkey. It changed a lot and they did big efforts but probably we need more

cyndy22 · Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2005 10:50 pm Post subject:

a marriage made in heaven you2

Vic · Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2005 10:57 pm Post subject:

Kaliningrad is a prize of war that is settled be Russians. It has changed hands many times over the last 300 years. No chance of any independence for them.
Don't worry about Georgia or Ukraine joining NATO or the EU. There is another simple reason why neither of them will join: the current presidents that came in to power came in on a wave of western money and displeased citizens. They have come into power and then what? Nothing! (I cannot speak for Ukraine as they have just recently had this happen, I will speak for Georgia, but the two situations are unravelling identically) Sakashvilli came to power, he knows that he cannot do anything to a failed economy that has little chance of rising up in the near future. Most of the people live on handouts from international groups and money sent in from relatives working in Russia, they live in poverty. Sukashvilli realises this and understands that he has to give them a promise, he cannot promise them a good life, so he promises to fight corruption (which means - jailing the current thieves and putting new thieves in their place) and restoring territorial integrity (TRYING to return the republic of Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia, who seperated in 1992 with de-facto independence and now desperately want to become part of the Russian Federation. This will not happen either, the people of Abkhazia HATE the Georgians, they have good reason to do so, 1/4 of Abkhazians were slaughtered by Georgians in 1992, they will not forget this.) But the thing is, as long as he starts confronting Russia and Putin about Abkhazia in press-conferences (he is too much of a coward to actually say it at any of the meetings with senior Russian officials) the people will see that he is doing something and they take their eyes off the failing economy because now they have a goal - to unite the country. Since this is impossible, it will be a long time untill the people get bored doing this and start calling for Sakashvilli's head. Bush can learn something from Sakashvilli, the latter is better at distracting the public from economical problems, Bush, with his war in Iraq has seperated the country into Bush-lovers and Bush-haters.
I am sure that the EU and NATO sees that the countries are in near-hopeless positions and will not consider them. They are pawns. There will be a counter-revolution, it is only a matter of time that the people realise that they traded one thieving idiot for another. It is all very interesting to observe from the sidelines though.
Vic

Camrade · Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2005 11:47 pm Post subject:

how can it leave RF if it's consist of russians and a part of the federation?
it can never happen because of the specific of the region...

Walking Contradiction · Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 10:38 am Post subject:

You know, it's the only place in our country where is залежи янтаря (кто
знает, как это по-английски переведите plz) I know that's not a resource
of biggest importance but anyway, nobody gonna let them go thier own way, it's located on important trade routs of Baltic, it's also a prize of war like it was said. Who's gonna give it back?

Camrade · Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:28 pm Post subject:

2Walking Contradiction
залежи янтаря - amber bed (means that there is a shit lots of amber)

mister_wizzz · VIP Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 559

sputnik · Lounge Lizard Joined: 02 Jan 2005 Posts: 141

kaliningrad will not leave the russian federation. it's historical background is very different from the baltic states, used as an example here. the fact that it is russian territory, after the collapse of the soviet union and independency of belarus and the baltics, proves that.

kaliningrad is a curiosity, that came into existence thanks to ww2 and gives an indication of what happened to polish and german territory after the war. hopefully it is large enough to stimulate the eu /russia dialogue on their mutual travel restrictions. the diplomatic pestering that has been going on for years now doesn't encourage tourism and trade much.

e · VIP Joined: 23 Apr 2005 Posts: 654

The BBC has a series of really good articles about Kaliningrad: http://newssearch.bbc.co.uk/cgi-bin/search/results.pl?scope=newsifs&q=kaliningrad&tab=news

Nothing is going to happen to Kaliningrad any time soon. Kaliningrad is too Russified and wayy too poor to suddenly declare independence and call itself Prussia out of all things. After "losing" Eastern Europe, the Cacausian regions, the Baltics and now the Ukraine, Russia is on the extreme defensive as it will probably fight to the death over what is truly the last remaining piece of its 20th century gains. Kaliningrad is seen as a part of Russia and to lose it, would be a big loss of morale in Russia as well as a massive dip in Putin's popularity. The EU and the US wont want to fight Russia over this piece of crap land either. Germany in particular doesn't want to be responsible for this place considering the disaster intergrating East Germany into West Germany was.

And as for everything else:

Ukraine is getting in the EU and NATO. The EU has already set the wheels in motion for that, its now up to Ukraine to fullfill its end of the deal. The EU (should there even be an EU in the future as the constitution is being systematic rejected) does this for all applicant countries. The applicant countries have fullfill the quotas or essentially do the changes that the EU demands of them, and you're in. This is why Turkey hasn't gotten into the EU; Turkey has not really fulfilled a single EU requirement since it applied but yet it thinks it should be let in regardless. Georgia is too far away and wayyy too poor to be seriously considered. NATO maybe, but EU definately not.

Its interesting that all of things you guys are saying now, people were saying the same things about Latvia, Poland, and etc 15 years ago and look where they are today.

Vic · Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2005 9:04 pm Post subject:

e:
It is clear that you read too many propagandistic sources to know what it is that you are talking about. The only thing that you go right in all of that was that Georgia is not getting into the EU and that Kaliningrad is not going to get independence.
Ukraine is too disorganized and uncapable of meeting EU demands. Kaliningrad is not a "crap region" but is a pretty nice enclave and has a pretty good economy because of its status in the Federation.
Russia did not loose any "caucus" as far as I know...would you care to clarify? I would say that we gained two - Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia in the last few years.
About Ukraine, well, we will see in 5+ years when these oranges get violently replaced by some other random color. It is politically unstable.
About Latvia, yes, I am looking, and what is your point? It has a failing economy, a self-destructing foreign policy and a very pissed off population. Did I miss anything?

e · VIP Joined: 23 Apr 2005 Posts: 654

I would love to argue this with you, but you being a Russian living in Russia, it would be usless. Your patriotic pride and typical Russian downcasting of everyone else in region will prevent you from seeing things and arguing logically as you did in your response.

To then...any takers?? Very Happy

Besides, Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia are being illegally occupied by Russia. If Gerogia had a larger or more technologically advanced army, they would've kicked you guys out there years ago.

Cheers!

-E

Vic · Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2005 10:47 am Post subject: