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Prill
Frequent Guest
Joined: 21 Apr 2005
Posts: 17
Location: united kingdom
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 Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:28 pm Post subject: a communist coup |
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| Hello could the Russian army turn against putin and declare a return to old soviet glory and turn russia back into a country of soviet opression. |
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wu687
Lounge Lizard
Joined: 18 Jul 2003
Posts: 199
Location: Victoria BC, Canada
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:40 pm Post subject: |
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| No, what Russian army, they seem to be having a hard enough time down south. |
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wwwadim
Lounge Lizard
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 145
Location: Moscow Region, M-7 Highway, Noginsk
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: a communist coup |
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| Prill wrote: | | Hello could the Russian army turn against putin and declare a return to old soviet glory and turn russia back into a country of soviet opression. |
I don't think so. Thus Russian Army is rather big (1,5 million soldiers and officers) is is so weak. There is no any modern weapons and elementary conditions for the soldiers - they are in a great problem. There are no chance to use russian army against putin. It wold be easier to use 100 chechen boeviks (profi legion of terorrists) against him. We had seen one way to decrease popularity of Putin - Beslan (Terrorists in the school killed 200 children and our army cold do nothing. But plus. While russian army and SWAT shturmed school to escape children, our army eliminated 9 terrorists and about 100 children (!!!) together with them.).
It is sad, but true.  |
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Prill
Frequent Guest
Joined: 21 Apr 2005
Posts: 17
Location: united kingdom
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:07 pm Post subject: |
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| well even with your army having just grenades and klashnakov rifles and old soviet era tanks there are still enough to retake the former soviet republics or am i wrong. |
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El-Casey
Lounge Lizard
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 87
Location: Мелбурн, Флорида США
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| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:17 am Post subject: |
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Correct me if I'm wrong here (Russian citizens, etc) but Russia is overextended militarily. Former republics like Georgia and Azerbaijan (especially Georgia and Azerbaijan, because of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline) get substantial US aid, and are currently being trained by US Special Forces in "counter-terror" tactics. All this means is that the US is helping Georgia reclaim South Ossetia and Abkhazia by trumping up claims that Al Qaeda fighters are in the Pankisi Gorge, which they're not (they weren't as of 2003 - a lot can happen in 2 years, though). Georgia got substantially more US aid in 2003 than any other country but Israel. Azerbaijan has a breakaway province to rein in (and probably Islamist fighters) but the US will help because the pipeline runs through Azeri territory.
The Chechens have officially pissed me off. First and foremost, I can't stand religious fundamentalists, no matter what religion they are. Second, since Maskhadov's death, the "unrestricted war" favored by Basayev and now-deceased Ibn-ul-Khattab is going to be the predominant type of war. Beslan is absolutely horrible and I completely abandoned any support of the Chechen independence struggle after the downing of two airliners and the metro bombings last year. Beslan was the icing on the cake but, alas, just like the Moscow Theater siege, the Russian security forces managed to kill far more people than the terrorists. 
I read on MosNews today, though, that Maskhadov's demise has caused infighting between pro-Basayev forces and Maskhadov's men. It'd certainly be nice if they started killing themselves instead of Russian women and children.
I'm coming to Moscow, no doubt about it, and while I have some apprehensions, I'm not scared to go. But I will be pretty pissed off if some Chechen jerkoff torches him/herself up in the metro while I'm down there and I lose an arm or my life. I think it's a damned shame that General Lebed didn't get elected President and I mean that 100%. There was a man who knew the stakes and I had a lot of respect for him.
For those not familiar with "Everyone's Favorite Chechens" (Basayev and Khattab) check out their dossiers here (Basayev) and here (Khattab). There are dossiers on just about every major Chechen player, although many of them are now deceased (or believed to be). |
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Vic
Talk Show Host
Joined: 29 Mar 2005
Posts: 298
Location: Moscow, Russian Federation
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| Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2005 8:45 pm Post subject: |
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Actually, I would not say that our army is in any way weak. We have advanced air defence, aviation, armoured divisions and strategic rocket forces, not to mention the largest fleet of submarines in the world. Ofcourse, the conscripts will not get their hands on any of that, for obvious reasons.
I do not think that they will in any way rise up against Putin because he is the commander and chief who's popularity is very high.
Yes, the U.S. is funding the Georgians, but that will not help them at all in their 'heroic efforts' to retake Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia. Abkhazians (with Russian Help) kicked the Georgians out in 92-93 when Georgia had fresh Soviet arms and the Abkhazians had nothing. They will gladly do it again, but this time to a Georgian army that has nothing and the Abkhazians getting direct Russian support. (As of january 2004, 80% of Abkhazians are citizens of the RF - They were given citizenship so that Russia can keep Georgia from trying any armed invasion of Abkhazia.) Besides, you have 400,000 people who HATE Georgians and will not think twice about standing up against Georgians should they dare to attack.
You misunderstood about the Panksi gorge. It is Russia that is claiming that there are terrorists camped out there, and it is Georgia that is defending them (or just closing their eyes). The proof - many of the terrorists killed inside Chechnya with foreign passports had Georgian tourist Visas. The panski gorge is on the border, and it does not take much to cross over without being noticed into the Chechen republic. The Georgians claimed that Our airforce carried out several strikes on locations inside the Panski gorge in the last several years, all of which (ofcourse) we denied. |
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Intourist
Talk Show Host
Joined: 21 Dec 2004
Posts: 245
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2005 1:54 am Post subject: |
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| Prill wrote: | | well even with your army having just grenades and klashnakov rifles and old soviet era tanks there are still enough to retake the former soviet republics or am i wrong. |
Yeah, you're wrong. But not because it's over-extended. The military as an institution has always been a powerful enough entity to sway political upheaval if need be.
But Communism ? It's a completely defunct party. They have an ever decreasing representation politically and socially.
If the army *were* to participate in some kind of coup (and while I find it unlikely given the almost ultimate power that Putin's St. Pete siloviki wield in almost all aspects of current Russian authority structures), it certainly wouldn't be communist. Maybe ultra-nationalist or liberal reformists, but not communist.
In any case, it ain't gonna happen. Putin's grip is all-encompassing right now, and social apathy towards the powers that be is at an all time high. What happened in Georgia, Ukraine or Kirgizstan is, despite Kremlin fears, not gonna have anywhere near any kind of momentum necessary to repeat itself here.
The more interesting question, in my opinion, is by what means Putin is gonna hold onto power come the next election. |
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El-Casey
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Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 87
Location: Мелбурн, Флорида США
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| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2005 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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Vic, I didn't mean to imply that there weren't any terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge; I know there are. What I meant was that there are not any al Qaeda terrorists in the Gorge, because I doubt there are. I know there are plenty of foreign fighters in the CRI forces, including one Japanese! Using tourist visas and the like to get into countries neighboring a conflict is a method as old as passports.
I support the Russian bid to support the breakaway republics (the ones that want to join the RF), as long as it's the will of the people who live in those republics, and it seems like it. American citizenship aside, I don't necessarily like the US military getting involved in Eastern European political struggles, especially when we're supporting the side that wants to retake the breakaways by force. The Abkhazians and South Ossetians aren't using terror tactics against Georgia, hence I have my support. The Chechens don't seem to mind causing the deaths of 350 kids and they enjoy blowing themselves up in crowded metro stations, hence I have zero support for them (before they started all this terror nonsense, I did support Chechen independence). And let me say this - I do support Chechen independence, because Russia trying to forcibly retain is incredibly counter-productive and is causing unnecessary deaths. I do not, however, support the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria or any of the people who believe, like Basayev, that civilian targets are a great choice for attack. Chechnya is completely f**ked up, plain and simple. |
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wavetossed
WayToRussified
Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 339
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| Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:58 am Post subject: |
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Am I dreaming this? Or do you people really know nothing whatsoever about Russia?
First of all, armies rarely ever overthrow governments. What they do is to support a strong leader to displace a weak leader or a stupid leader or an insane leader. Sometimes the strong leader is a General, like Pinochet in Chile. Other times the strong man is a civilian like Yeltsin in Russia or Yushchenko in the Ukraine. Yes, both Yeltsin and Yushchenko did receive direct support from the armed forces.
So, to answer your question about Putin. No he will not be overthrown by the Russian army because Putin is a strong leader, the kind of leader that armed forces like to SUPPORT! In any case, Putin is in his last term as President and will leave office in a few years when the next general elections are held.
But you really don't understand Russia when you ask whether the "Russian Army" will overthrow someone. Which Russian army? There is more than one! And they are not led by a unified command in the same way that the American Secretary of Defense leads the National Guard, Marines, Army, Navy and Air Force. In Russia, there is still a "communist party" type system in power where there are many strong men who have power over various factions and who make deals with each other to maintain stability. In the old days, this system was hidden inside the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Nowadays it is more visible and it is rather similar to the power groups that control the American bipartisan system. In these types of oligarchic systems, no one person has enough power to overthrow the others, so they must be satisfied with dealmaking and jostling for influence and economic power. There is a penalty for gathering up too much power as people like Howard Huges and Roman Abramovich have discovered. |
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Intourist
Talk Show Host
Joined: 21 Dec 2004
Posts: 245
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2005 9:25 am Post subject: |
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| wavetossed wrote: | | In any case, Putin is in his last term as President and will leave office in a few years when the next general elections are held. |
Current talk in the corridors of power is how to keep Putin in power. Several ways have been discussed. One is to move him down to Prime Minister and make the Presidential office largely symbolic. Another is cancel elections on the pretext of nationalist threat from Rodina (or Nat Bols). In any case, current conventional political thought has Putin going nowhere anytime soon.
| wavetossed wrote: | | But you really don't understand Russia when you ask whether the "Russian Army" will overthrow someone. Which Russian army? There is more than one! And they are not led by a unified command in the same way that the American Secretary of Defense leads the National Guard, Marines, Army, Navy and Air Force. |
They are led by a unified command. He's called the Minister of Defense his name is Sergei Ivanov.
| wavetossed wrote: | | There is a penalty for gathering up too much power as people like Howard Huges and Roman Abramovich have discovered. |
What penalty has Roman Abramovich been faced with ? Maybe you mean Mikhail Khodorkovsky ? There's kinda a big difference.
| wavetossed wrote: | | Or do you people really know nothing whatsoever about Russia? |
You should be careful being so impertinent when you seem to have little inside understanding yourself. |
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sputnik
Lounge Lizard
Joined: 02 Jan 2005
Posts: 141
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| Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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The real issue with the russian armed forces seems not to be it's sheer strength, but the way they are adapted to the demands of these times and their reluctance to adapt themselves.
Russia still has more nuclear rockets than any other nation, a large fleet and a huge ground army. though in terms of small, flexible units that can deal effectively with the terrorist threats that Russia faces, the army reveals it's shortcomings. Somehow it seems their development of the army and it's technology seems to have ignored the ending of the cold war... |
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Zeus
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Joined: 23 Mar 2005
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2005 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Why the hell does Rossija want Chechens in their country? Kick 'em out or give them their independence but who wants those smelly b@stards in Rossija anyways? |
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Intourist
Talk Show Host
Joined: 21 Dec 2004
Posts: 245
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Zeus wrote: | | Why the hell does Rossija want Chechens in their country? Kick 'em out or give them their independence but who wants those smelly b@stards in Rossija anyways? |
Ignoring the racial epithet you used, I'd answer that Chechnya and the entire region around it is strategically important for Russia because it represents a significant amount of Russia's border to the Caspian sea, a major source of offshore oil. |
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El-Casey
Lounge Lizard
Joined: 15 Apr 2005
Posts: 87
Location: Мелбурн, Флорида США
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| Posted: Sat Apr 30, 2005 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Intourist, what do you think the solution is? Honestly, I can't see any just and equitable solution to the problem. Granted, I've yet to be "on the ground" in Russia and I damn sure ain't going anywhere near Chechnya (or the North Caucasus, for that matter), but I try to read all I can on the subject. Just curious for the "Russian perspective" that doesn't take on a nationalist, "kill 'em all" attitude. |
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