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darthvader
WayToRussified
Joined: 09 Dec 2005
Posts: 427
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 Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:04 pm Post subject: Russian birth rates |
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From much that I have read, Russia is in demographic crisis.
Demographic stats say that Russians are only birthing about 1.17 kids per couple. 1.17 is nowhere near the optimum 2.1 to maintain steady replacement population - ie. to replace the parents.
In 1990, the biths per couple were 2.0.
(Honestly, one author I read talks about a 1.2 child replacement rate as a national demographic death spiral)
Russia is such a huge nation, but according to current trends, the population will halve every generation. How will this huge nation be run in 30 years? OK, so I think way too far ahead! Things can change, but will they really turn around - in time?
Quite a lot of people still migrating out from Russia too. More than the number of foreigners moving in.
No wonder Putin's trying a 250,000 rubles incentive to encourage parents to have a second child.
Interestingly, some countries less wealthy than Russia have much higher birth rates.
Looks like a little more old fashioned "hanky panky" is required! |
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surfguy
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 6979
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Rick
Moderator
Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 854
Location: Касабланка
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:14 am Post subject: |
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This problem is tremendous. Russia is a demographic disaster. An article I read in Moscow mentioned there has not been a single year since the collapse of the Soviet Union in which the population has not declined with at least 700.000 and this trend is not turning, even with the current 'economic boom'.
It's even worse if you imagine that Russia has an immigration surplus: more people (esp. from former Soviet republics) have come to live in Russia than that have left the country (in contrary to popular western belief). This surplus is about 5 million, but it might well be that Russia houses an additional 5 million illegal inhabitants. Basically this would mean that Russia has not just lost 148 - 144 = 4 million inhabitants in the course of 15 years, but it has lost about 9-14 million people of it's original 1991 population... 10%
With a healthy birth/death ratio the current population would not have been 144, but 153-158 million, at least.... |
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overseas_expat
VIP
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Posts: 741
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:25 am Post subject: |
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Don't fret, plenty of hanky panky going on in Russia.
Which also has the highest abortion rate in the world. Women are getting pregnant alright but what they are NOT doing is bearing children. The abortion to live birth rate is better than 2 to 1.
Frightening isn't it? |
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MrSpice
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 14 Jul 2003
Posts: 3431
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:33 am Post subject: |
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| overseas_expat wrote: | Don't fret, plenty of hanky panky going on in Russia.
Which also has the highest abortion rate in the world. Women are getting pregnant alright but what they are NOT doing is bearing children. The abortion to live birth rate is better than 2 to 1.
Frightening isn't it? |
One has to compare Russia's birth rate not to other developing countries, but to other European countries. It has always been the case even in the Soviet times that women mostly had 1 or 2 children. I know lots of Russians who are the only children in the family (including me). |
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Rick
Moderator
Joined: 04 May 2005
Posts: 854
Location: Касабланка
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:38 am Post subject: |
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| Yes, it's more likely that the death rate is a big part of the problem. I don't know what the figure is for 2006/7, but I remember the life expectancy at birth was pretty bad 2 or 3 years ago. Nowhere near western countries.. |
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nikir
Frequent Guest
Joined: 17 Mar 2010
Posts: 54
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:54 am Post subject: |
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Abortion is very common as many families simply cannot sustain more than 1 or 2 children economically. One family I know had their first child in 1976 then a second 10 years later and 5 or 6 abortions in between. Those kids are now 30 and 20, have had good education and everything else that was possible for the parents to provide. It would not have been the case if there had been more of them.
The statistics of early death particularly in men are of far more concern and, healthcare and lifestyle issues need to be addressed most of all. Far too many people die prematurely because they cannot afford to or cannot see a doctor in time. |
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Paul-Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1073
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surfguy
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 13 Apr 2006
Posts: 6979
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:05 am Post subject: |
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| yes it's very scary |
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overseas_expat
VIP
Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Posts: 741
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:09 am Post subject: |
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I have repeatedly read in all kinds of health statistics (which I'm too lazy to hunt up and provide links to) from both the Russian government and international health organizations, that the average Russian woman has 13 abortions in her lifetime. This is an absolutely phenomenal number. The average Russian woman now bears 1 live child in her lifetime.
This is the Russian demographic crisis. It's also a health and family crisis for Russia. A country of only children. I rarely see a Russian family with more than one child. Replacement rate is, of course, 2 children per women.
The question then is: why are Russian women refusing to bear children? And it's easy to see from the exorbitant abortion rate that this is indeed a refusal.They're certainly hanky pankying, they're certainly getting pregnant, and then they're willfully terminating the pregnancies.
There are all kinds of socio-economic reasons for their unwillingness to give birth, but it's all still very shocking nonetheless. It's a very deep problem without easy answers. |
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surfguy
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 13 Apr 2006
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:25 am Post subject: |
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| Wow...ok mostly I think women are refusing because of economic reasons and also lack of support from the men. Both economic and being involved-providing the family unit and stability. I've had this conversation with quite a few Russian women. Many of the women want more than one child-but not if they are unsure about support. That many abortions per women is unbelievable...there has to be problems associated with that-both physical and ment. It must take a toll on the body. It's crazy and people should not be using it as birth control. Having sex is fine...of course too I was told that condoms are expensive there....to buy at the store. How is birth control for women. I know that the women I was with were not on it. |
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overseas_expat
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Joined: 11 Jan 2005
Posts: 741
Location: Moscow
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:44 am Post subject: |
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Bingo.
surfguy, that's the most insightful post you're ever put up.
For a bunch of reasons I don't completely understand, Russian women have been completely scared away from birth control pills. A bunch of hooey about unnaturalness, and synthetic hormones being bad for you, they're totally afraid of BCP. There is very little acceptance of them in this country.They're dirt cheap here but women won't use them.
Condoms are everywhere and cheap, but there's that whole male macho thing going on in this country and men won't use them and women acquiesce. This also accounts for the high rate of STD's here. Abortions are free, legal, and easy to get. Miserable and without anesthetics  
Your girlfriend is a perfect example, ask her. Then go back in 20 years and ask her how many abortions she's had. |
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nikir
Frequent Guest
Joined: 17 Mar 2010
Posts: 54
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:18 am Post subject: |
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Russians like to medicate with all sorts of herbal remedies and are wary of a lot of western medication. Hence the resistance to the BCP and also why STD's are so widespread. Abortion is the accepted method although I did notice last year that quite a number of huge anti abortion posters are appearing on the streets. Now there needs to be a campaign run concurrently to promote alternative birth control.
That will do nothing for the birthrate though. Perhaps the new "baby bonus" will be some incentive and I have also heard of a plan to impose a tax on childless couples and single men.
Housing needs to be radically improved as well as it is impossible to live as a family of any size in those appalling one room monstrosities that there are so many of. |
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jo-jo-7
Just Starting
Joined: 16 Mar 2010
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:51 am Post subject: |
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| nikir wrote: | Russians like to medicate with all sorts of herbal remedies and are wary of a lot of western medication. Hence the resistance to the BCP and also why STD's are so widespread. Abortion is the accepted method although I did notice last year that quite a number of huge anti abortion posters are appearing on the streets. Now there needs to be a campaign run concurrently to promote alternative birth control.
That will do nothing for the birthrate though. Perhaps the new "baby bonus" will be some incentive and I have also heard of a plan to impose a tax on childless couples and single men.
Housing needs to be radically improved as well as it is impossible to live as a family of any size in those appalling one room monstrosities that there are so many of. |
I agree...those flats are so small that there has to be some kind of change if you are going to have more children...if people are going to consider this "Baby Bonus" then there has to be a medium somewhere...on housing....  |
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jo-jo-7
Just Starting
Joined: 16 Mar 2010
Posts: 6
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| Posted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:59 am Post subject: |
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| overseas_expat wrote: | I have repeatedly read in all kinds of health statistics (which I'm too lazy to hunt up and provide links to) from both the Russian government and international health organizations, that the average Russian woman has 13 abortions in her lifetime. This is an absolutely phenomenal number. The average Russian woman now bears 1 live child in her lifetime.
This is the Russian demographic crisis. It's also a health and family crisis for Russia. A country of only children. I rarely see a Russian family with more than one child. Replacement rate is, of course, 2 children per women.
The question then is: why are Russian women refusing to bear children? And it's easy to see from the exorbitant abortion rate that this is indeed a refusal.They're certainly hanky pankying, they're certainly getting pregnant, and then they're willfully terminating the pregnancies.
There are all kinds of socio-economic reasons for their unwillingness to give birth, but it's all still very shocking nonetheless. It's a very deep problem without easy answers. |
It does sounds as if abortion is being used as a method of birth control...um, it is so simple just to use a condom...but, it seems pride gets in the way...such as shame to abort a child just for birth control purposes....not to mention the cost for each abortion and with little money...you would think people would use their sense to go a different route if they don't want to bring a baby in the world, it is sad when a baby has to die for someone elses pleasure....put on a condom for crying out loud.....it is a cheap method to keep from a costly shame.... 
Last edited by jo-jo-7 on Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:51 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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