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Dr_Strangelove_82
Just Starting
Joined: 14 Nov 2004
Posts: 7
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 Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:25 pm Post subject: Will eastern Ukraine break away and align with Russia? |
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This possibility has been mentioned often in the past two weeks. Ukraine is indeed a nation split between its nationalist west and Russified east. All 14 provinces won by the liberal candidate were in the west, whilst all 13 provinces won by the pro-Moscow candidate were in the east. I'd put the chances of a breakup at 50-50.
Despite being ethnic cousins, Ukrainians and Russians have a long history of tension. Under both the czars and the Communists, Ukrainian nationalism was suppressed. The part of Ukraine along and east of the Dniepr River was one of the Soviet empire's leading industrial regions. Dating from the time of the czars, there was a large ethnic Russian population in this region. Famous Soviet leaders Khrushchev and Brezhnev, for instance, were both Ukrainian-born Russians who spent much of their political career keeping the lid on Ukrainian self-determination.
In contrast to the industrialized east, which includes the major cities of Kharkiv, Dontesk and Dnepropetrovsk, western Ukraine is predominantly rural and underdeveloped. It's a land of rich wheatfields that was the breadbasket of the Russian and later the Soviet empire. When Germany compelled Russia to sign the humiliating treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918, Ukraine was annexed to the German empire, as the Germans saw the need for its food supply that could alleviate the suffocating British naval blockade. However, in barely 10 months Germany had been defeated, and Ukraine's fate was up in the air as the Russian civil war began.
During the civil war, Ukraine's strong anti-Bolshevik sentiment made it friendly with the western allies, who sympathized with its independence hopes much as they did with Poland's. However, the White armies that did the bulk of the fighting against the Reds were led by czarist generals who opposed Ukrainian autonomy. With both sides claiming sovereignty over it, Ukraine as an independent state was doomed whichever way the civil war ended.
Ukraine's Russification was accelerated under the Communists in the years between WWI and WWII. Russian immigrants poured into eastern Ukraine as well as Crimea and the major Black Sea ports (e.g. Odessa) to spearhead the industrialization drive. Ukrainian resistance to Stalin's policies of agricultural collectivization and crash industrialization were brutally suppressed. Nearly 10 million Ukrainians were killed in Stalin's extermination of peasants, mass executions of political prisoners and the famine of 1932-33.
In the meantime, Ukraine was seen as a key prize by the Nazis in Germany. Recalling the earlier German effort to annex Ukraine's wheat-producing regions, Hitler made the conquest of Ukraine a top priority in his invasion of the USSR in 1941, diverting significant forces away from the main drive to Moscow. Their hatred of Stalin caused many Ukrainians to side with Hitler, though they soon discovered the Nazis, who saw all Slavs as subhumans, were even worse. Over 5 million Ukrainians died in WWII.
After WWII, Ukraine's Russification continued, as any hint of self-determination could be associated with treason during WWII. Ukraine became by far the second most important republic in the USSR and had a seat in the UN. In the east and Crimea, the Russian influence became very firmly entrenched, such that Soviet leaders by the 1980s couldn't imagine losing Ukraine.
Of course, Soviet leaders also couldn't predict such a spectacular breakup of their nation in 1991. Were it not for the aborted coup of August '91, in all likelihood Ukraine (along with Belarus) would've remained in a formal union with Russia - in contrast with the vehemently anti-Russian Baltic and Caucasian republics.
But the new independent Ukraine since 1991 has had to deal with the split between nationalist and Russified parts, the former leaning closer to Poland and the west, with a strong Roman Catholic element, and the latter leaning to Moscow. Indeed, Ukraine has become a main faultline between westernized/Latinized Slavs and their eastern/Orthodox cousins. It's the border territory between 2 civilizations. Whichever way the election plays out, Ukraine's breakup is a definite possibility. |
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Dr-Fauste
Site Admin
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Posts: 654
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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YOu forget that Ukraine is the original orgins of the Rus or the first Russians. Kiev was the capital of Russia. Cooler heads will prevail. THere was a post that the labour party might Yackovich and put a more moderate Candidate in. Ukraine cannot afford to abandon Russia or the west. So moderation is needed.
Also you forgot that Ukraine was divide when it was conquered by Poland and Russia. UKrainian language is not vastly different than Russian. |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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First, if the Ukraine splits, the part which split off would probably join with Crimea.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/11/29/001.html
| Quote: | | Many delegates suggested joining Russian-speaking Crimea, which has its own parliament and government. Crimea, Ukraine's Black Sea resort region and home to a major Russian Navy base, railed against Ukrainian rule in the 1990s. |
Second, it depends on whom the tycoons decide to support. If they see the winds of change as inevitable they may choose to de-fuse the situation and put an end to the calls for self autonomy in the East and support Yushchenko.
http://www.kyivpost.com/top/21950/
| Quote: | Analysis: Oligarchs switching sides?
...Signs are emerging, however, that factions in Ukraine’s political and business elite who previously supported the candidacy of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych are switching sides and putting their chips on Yushchenko.
Citing a statement issued by President Leonid Kuchma’s son-in-law Viktor Pinchuk, opposition television station Channel 5 reported on Nov. 29 that the deputy and business mogul opposes separatist movements in eastern Ukraine that are being spearheaded by Yanukovych and the Donetsk-based tycoons who continue to back him.
Pinchuk is reportedly Ukraine’s second richest man. His assets have been valued at about $3 billion. |
Third, the possibility of new elections occuring again has not been ruled out.
http://www.kyivpost.com/bn/21954/
| Quote: | | Kuchma says new vote possible |
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/11/30/001.html
| Quote: | | Kuchma Opens Door to a New Election |
Fourth, the suppressed Ukrainian nationalism has expressed itself sufficiently. You can't put the genie back into the bottle.
Fifth, like most FSU countries theUkrainians have tolerated the corruption. They want it to end just as much as anybody [except for those who want the bribes]. It is cost effective for the individual and for business for corruption to end. Kuchma couldn't do the job and Russia is not too far behind the Ukraine in corruption.
Sixth, Putin miscalculated with his puppet. He polarized the Ukainian people into nationalists vs pro-Moscowists.
Seventh, Putin miscalutated the response of the EU and the United States.
http://www.kyivpost.com/bn/21958/
| Quote: |
Students in Poland rally for Yushchenko
...In the southeastern city of Rzeszow, some 300 students, with orange caps, scarves and balloons, rallied in front of Ukraine's consulate for the western-leaning Yushchenko chanting "Ukraine without Putin." |
http://www.kyivpost.com/bn/21953/
| Quote: |
Britain rejects election result
...In a separate statement, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said "a new Iron Curtain threatens to fall across Ukraine." Baroness Thatcher urged the West to act decisively, saying: "Tyranny must not prevail. " |
Eighth, the Ukrainian Parliament's non-binding resolutions shows that they can see the eventual outcome, Ukraine nationalism cannot be suppressed
Ninth, Yanukovych may be losing his support in Moscow.
From the Moscow Times
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/11/30/002.html
| Quote: | Spin Doctors Blame Yanukovych
Back in Moscow after campaigning for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, two prominent Kremlin-connected spin doctors sought to deflect criticism of their role by turning on Yanukovych, saying his criminal past had made their job very difficult.
This, not Russian interference in the election, had led to the mass demonstrations in support of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, said Sergei Markov, who was part of a team of political consultants sent to help Yanukovych, the Kremlin's pick.
But Ukrainian political analysts said the Russian spin doctors had underestimated the differences between the two countries and that PR techniques that worked in Russia had rebounded against Yanukovych.
Even if Ukraine and Russia have a common past, there is a fundamental difference between the two countries, as Russian civil society is weak and easy to manipulate, while Ukrainian civil society is not, they said.
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And yes, I did not post the full articles, they were edited, but I kept the key points.
Mark |
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Dr-Fauste
Site Admin
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Posts: 654
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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Cool, I read it quickly and yet very imformative
Mark, I challenge you in what is happening in Romania and why the west is not covering it as much? |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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I would need more details, but based on what I have seen, there is no agrrement on whether their were issues with the election vs Ukraine where it may be more obvious.
Or perhaps due to the lack of protestors.
I am still looking for a good source of info on Romania.
Romania is still on track to join the EU, so I would imagine it would be monitored more closely for compliance with EU rules et al.
Mark |
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Dr-Fauste
Site Admin
Joined: 23 Nov 2004
Posts: 654
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Bucharest — The leader of Romania's opposition party called Tuesday for the results of weekend parliamentary and presidential elections to be annulled and for new votes to be held, claiming fraud.
Traian Basescu, who heads the centrist Justice and Truth Alliance and is running for president, contended that election authorities had given an extra 160,000 ballots – 2.5 per cent of the votes – to his rival, Prime Minister Adrian Nastase.
“We have no doubt this is fraud," Mr Basescu said. "... We want the immediate dismissal of election authorities. … The repetition of the election is necessary.”
Almost complete results released Tuesday showed the governing party in the lead in the parliamentary race, but without enough votes to form a government, forcing them to seek partners for a coalition. A runoff for the presidential race, which was also close, has been announced for Dec. 12. |
EU & USA will allow Romania to have problems, because they are western based , but not Ukraine.
I remember the vote in Georgia, and the west was quiet then. Why Ukraine? |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2004 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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It is probably Putin's ties with Yanukovych.
It is a message to Russia not to try to re-absorb the FSU into a new empire.
Ukraine is a physical barrier to keep Russia out of Romania. No threat of invasion to Romania
A win in Ukraine necessarily means a win in the long run in Romania, despite any current problems. It is in the middle of Romania and Russia.
I looked at a map to get an idea on the physical locations.
Mark |
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wavetossed
WayToRussified
Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 339
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| Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:06 am Post subject: |
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I don't know why people listen to this long-winded clown.
In my opinion Ukraine will not split because there is no reason for it to split. The country is run by mafia-like clans who control the most lucrative industries. The important thing is what the leaders of these clans decide and I doubt that any of them will seriously support division because there is no way to make money from that. Joining part of Ukraine to Russia would be a bad deal because the government of Russia is putting a lot of pressure on oligarchs to clean up their act, pay taxes, and follow the law.
Yushchenko's basic philosophy is actually closer to Putin than Yanukovich who is an opportunist. Hopefully Putin will learn his lesson from this and replace the advisors who created this mess by recommending that he back Yanukovich. The same type of fiasco happened in Abkhazia where Putin publicly supported Khalimba which drove the voters to elect Bagapsh.
The same type of stupidity caused American advisors to tell president Bush that Iraqis would be happy for the US to invade and depose Saddam. There are a lot of parallels in the way Russian and American political analysts think, probably because they all put so much effort into studying each other during the cold war. The end result is that America becomes more like the Soviet Union was, and Russia makes the same mistakes that led Americans into Vietnam, Nicaragua, etc.
Russia should start to think for herself and look for a better way. The world needs a strong Russian Empire in Central Asia to counterbalance the USA and the EU. If we want to avoid another cold war, we need three strong superpowers so that stalemate cannot happen. |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:14 am Post subject: |
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| wavetossed wrote: | I don't know why people listen to this long-winded clown.
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Well it's your face being used as a clown.
Mark |
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Mogsfan
WayToRussified
Joined: 03 Nov 2004
Posts: 490
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| Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Joining part of Ukraine to Russia would be a bad deal because the government of Russia is putting a lot of pressure on oligarchs to clean up their act, pay taxes, and follow the law. |
LOL! |
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wavetossed
WayToRussified
Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 339
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| Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 4:53 am Post subject: |
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But, and it's a big but Mark Hagelin, that clown is your avatar.
In other words, you are the clown and I am the real thing.
You are the stupid fool who can't tell lies from truth and I am the clear eyed genius whose razor intellect can cut through silly claims that the word tsar originated from the word Khazar.
So you eep on wearing a clown face so that people learn not to take you seriously.
By the way, the word tsar originates from the surname of Julius Caesar. The name caesar was adopted as a title by the Roman emperors and those who felt there were successors of those emperors. One group, a family by the name of Romanov, was fortunate enough to be elected to hold the position of emperor of all the Russias and they also adopted Julie's surname as their title in a Russified form.
All hail tsar Michael! |
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Mogsfan
WayToRussified
Joined: 03 Nov 2004
Posts: 490
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| Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:38 am Post subject: back to Ukraine |
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Why don't you guys stop insulting each other with your intellectual pissing contests and discuss the situation in Ukraine? If you want to have the pissing contests, I recommend email. Or begin a new post.
I wish Russians and Ukrainians would become interested in this topic and initiate more discussion. It is truly historical and an interesting situation. I know people are getting tired of the political discussions and I often regret entering into political topics, too, but it's a very important issue, imho. I think Putin et al. want to expand Russia's influence in the region and that is what is behind everything. Yankovich is willing to obtain power in return for Russia's influence while Yushchenko wants to be his own boss and probable oppressive rule. I originally thought Yushchenko might be the genuine liberal leader who has Ukrainian's best interests at heart but I've been doing more reading and from as many sources as possible. A lot have been describing him as another corrupt oligarch toy and his so-called democratic zeal is just a means to secure support by disillusioned and exhausted voters who want genuine change for the better. Yankovich probably tried illegal means to win the election but Yushchenko is no saint. I wouldn't be surprised if all this is accurate because it is politicans we are talking about. The tendency is to pursue money and power to the detriment of the people.
The problem I see is this: if Americans, who supposedly have an advantage of their liberal-minded history and the value of freedom in debating or allowing freedom of different voices, cannot see the error of their ways (i.e. the re-election of Bush and the subsequent lack of principles), then how can one expect Ukrainans to see through the deception of the two Presidential candidates? If Americans don't value the seeking of alternate sources of information to determine the secret goals and deceit of their political leaders, then a society such as Ukraine (which is still, let's face it, closed and corrupt) will have a difficult time exposing their politicians.
If the voters aren't interested in politics and don't realize the seriousness and thus, the bitter consequences of choosing a particular political candidate, then they are doomed and subject to the consequencs these corrupt politicans thrust upon them. Eventually, the people must perceive as absolutely necessary the seeking of (alternate) additional sources of information in order to judge their political candidates. With all that being said, another issue is who the messengers are and what kind of agenda they may have (as you know, there are reports of censorship, bribes, use of threats etc.) and how to maintain and secure freedom of the press and media.
I wouldn't trust either of the Ukrainian candidates but how can the people fight these oligarchs and their puppets? |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:46 am Post subject: |
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Putin wants Ukraine as a physical barrier between Russia and the EU. If anything were to happen, it keeps foreign soldiers off of Russian soil.
When was the last time foreign soldiers were on Russian soil? Sometime during WW II.
Mark |
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Mogsfan
WayToRussified
Joined: 03 Nov 2004
Posts: 490
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| Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:57 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Putin wants Ukraine as a physical barrier between Russia and the EU. If anything were to happen, it keeps foreign soldiers off of Russian soil. |
The ironic thing is, that Russia will either have to join the EU in the future or have some sort of equivalent ties with it in order to compete with China. China will eventually take over and challenge the US as the World's true superpower. This dynamic turn of events will put enormous pressure on Russia and they will perceive that threat to be greater than anything the EU or other European countries could bring up. Russia better get its act together because the issue does not originate in Europe. |
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markhagelin
Talk Show Host
Joined: 31 Oct 2004
Posts: 208
Location: Maine, USA
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| Posted: Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:05 am Post subject: |
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I predict Russia will eventually join the EU. Russia along with Germany will become the major "players" in the EU.
Russia doesn't want to have to fight a war on 2 fronts, the EU on one and China on the other.
Germany lost WW II because they had the US on one side and Russia/USSR on the other.
I worry more about China. There is a saying "Beware the sleeping dragon".
In order for the New World Order to be sucessfull, they have to wake the sleeping dragon, who knows what will happen as they do?
Mark |
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