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Voyager
Frequent Guest
Joined: 08 Jan 2006
Posts: 45
Location: Ireland
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 Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 2:35 am Post subject: |
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It looks like Russia's oil and gas will have to stearch a bit further at home as the Australians cut off supplies of Nuclear fuel to Russia claiming it is no longer certain about its potential use.
Russia imports a substantian amount of its nuclear fuel from Australia and it expected that Russia will have to start shutting down some of its nuclear reactorsin the comming months as they run out of fuel.
This move is expected to have a negative impact on the already embattled Russian economy as New Zeland and Canada move to ban the export of nuclear fuels and equipment to Russia also |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Kazakhstan is the third highest producer so they will compete with China for these resources. There is a huge political push of China into Kazakhstan and there is a battle for it with China. |
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Voyager
Frequent Guest
Joined: 08 Jan 2006
Posts: 45
Location: Ireland
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Indeed , China has shown great interest Kazakhstan , and given that China has substantially deeper pockets than Russia , I'd say the Kremlin wont be able to aquire too much more than they are getting already , besides with Kazakhstan actively looking for Chineese protection and millitary support (from whom I wonder) I would say China will be the priority customer for their nuclear fuel |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Russia has 80 billion in back orders for reactors, so they will require uranium to help here. Plus with less desirable countries (and more profit), Russia will probably enrich the Uranium in Russia and then export it. |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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MICEX is down another 15%.
Oil is down to 85$. If it hits $60, then Russia is at trade deficit at present production and production is slipping.
Opec members are addicted to oil money and will cheat to survive, so opec cuts will be ignored. |
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Shadow
Frequent Guest
Joined: 14 Sep 2008
Posts: 12
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | | Do you have any education or you have been drinking? |
No i'm sorry, i haven't.
| Paul Holmes wrote: | | Russia cannot impose its currency on anyone. It cannot push that all products have to be built in Russia, because companies will just not sell it there. |
Yes. That will push the russians to produce with their own means and they will not waste money in importing "useless products". |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: Working its way through and greed is punished |
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Many small banks are going to collapse and the Oligarch who lived to excessive greed are getting punished.
Maybe a new conservatism will hit Russia and thoughts patterns of living today and will create steady growing businesses and have banks will proper loan practices.
I think this is a message for both USA, Great Britain, and Russia.
| Quote: | Abramovich, Deripaska, Oligarchs Lose $230 Billion (Update1)
By Yuriy Humber, Greg Walters and Maria Kolesnikova
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Russian billionaires from aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska to soccer-club owner Roman Abramovich lost more than $230 billion in five months during the nation's worst financial crisis since the 1998 default on its debt.
The combined wealth of Forbes magazine's 25 richest Russians tumbled 62 percent between May 19 and Oct. 6, based on the equity value of traded companies and analysts' estimates of closely held assets they own. The loss is four times larger than the fortune of the world's wealthiest man, Warren Buffett.
Moscow's benchmark Micex stock index declined 61 percent since its peak in May. The global credit seizure, war with Georgia and falling commodity prices led foreign investors to pull $74 billion out of Russia since early August, according to BNP Paribas SA. While Russia's 1998 default and devaluation of the ruble eradicated savings for most of the population, this year's losses are wiping out its richest citizens' fortunes.
``There was a massive transfer of wealth into the hands of the oligarchs in 1998,'' said Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., which has about $30 billion in emerging market stocks. ``Now it's going the other way.''
United Co. Rusal's Deripaska, 40, the richest Russian on the list, lost more than $16 billion and in the past week ceded stakes in Hochtief AG and Magna International Inc. Chelsea FC owner and Evraz Group SA shareholder Abramovich, 41, lost $20 billion, based on assets excluding property and cash.
Lisin's Losses
The biggest loser has been Vladimir Lisin, 52, an avid hunter and head of Russia's Shooting Club, whose 85 percent stake in OAO Novolipetsk Steel lost $22 billion in value in the period.
Novolipetsk rival Evraz declined 83 percent, shrinking 49- year-old founder Alexander Ambramov's fortune to $2.2 billion from $13.4 billion. Russia's biggest steelmaker, OAO Severstal, also fell, cutting the wealth of chief executive officer and majority owner Alexei Mordashov, 43, to $5.3 billion.
``They should take us all off the Forbes list,'' said Alexander Lebedev, ranked 39th by the magazine in May with $3.1 billion of wealth. Lebedev, 49, who owns 30 percent of state-run airline OAO Aeroflot, said in an interview on Sept. 23 that ``silly'' rhetoric by the Kremlin over the conflict in Georgia was responsible for 40 percent of the stock market's drop in August.
Lukoil, Alfa
OAO Lukoil Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov, 58, saw his 20 percent stake in Russia's second-biggest oil producer decline to $7.2 billion from $19.5 billion. The fortune of Alekperov deputy Leonid Fedun, 52, declined to $3 billion from $8.4 billion. Both men have said they will continue to buy more Lukoil shares.
Dmitry Rybolovlev, 41, who controls OAO Uralkali and owns 20 percent of OAO Silvinit, the country's only potash producers, lost about $12.8 billion, leaving him with $4.1 billion.
Alfa Group partners Mikhail Fridman, 44, German Khan, 46, and Alexei Kousmichoff, 45, ranked seventh, 10th and 17th, respectively, lost at least a combined $12.1 billion.
Alfa's shareholdings include BP Plc's Russian oil venture TNK-BP, mobile-phone operators OAO VimpelCom and Turkey's Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS, supermarket chain X5 Retail Group and television broadcaster CTC Media Inc.
Spokespeople for companies including Deripaska's Basic Element, Evraz, Nikolai Tsvetkov's UralSib Financial Corp. and Rybolovlev's Uralkali declined to comment on the losses.
Cashing Out
At least one of Russia's wealthiest got out in time.
Mikhail Prokhorov, 43, sold his 25 percent stake in OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel to Deripaska's Rusal for an undisclosed amount in April, just before nickel prices began to slump. The value of that stake plummeted from $13 billion on April 24 to $3.38 billion on Oct. 6.
Prokhorov received $7 billion in cash as part of the Norilsk transaction, the Kommersant and Vedomosti newspapers reported then, citing unidentified people familiar with the deal.
``Are you criticizing me for feasting amid the Black Death,'' Prokhorov joked with reporters in Moscow on Sept. 30, after buying half of Renaissance Capital for $500 million. That was less than a quarter of the value the investment bank had a year ago when VTB Group sought to take it over, according to a Vedemosti report. ``Crisis time is a peak for opportunities,'' Prokhorov said. ``An absolute peak.''
Trading Delayed
Russia's Micex and RTS stock exchanges delayed the opening of trading today on orders of the market regulator. It was unclear when trading would start, a spokesman for Micex said. The RTS won't resume stock trading until ``further notice,'' the bourse wrote in an e-mailed statement.
``You can now buy the free float of the entire Russian energy sector with the market cap of Coca-Cola, and still have change to buy all the Russian banks,'' Merrill Lynch & Co. emerging markets equity strategist Michael Hartnett said in a note to clients today.
The unprecedented loss of wealth may set the stage for a new round of asset redistribution, said Pavel Teplukhin, president of Troika Dialog Asset Management in Moscow.
``We've seen quite a significant inflow of fresh money by our wealthy individuals to acquire at these very attractive levels that we haven't seen since 2003, 2004,'' Teplukhin said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Oct. 9, a day the Micex Index climbed 9.8 percent.
Next Round
The next round of wealth building may be the most intense yet, according to Renaissance Capital. The first came between 1995 and 1998 as Russia's first president, the late Boris Yeltsin, agreed to sell stakes in the nation's biggest industrial assets in return for loans from bankers including Potanin, who helped organize the state bailout.
``It will be a game with bigger stakes than in early 1990s privatizations and the redistribution after the 1998 crisis,'' said David Aserkoff, chief strategist for Russia at Moscow-based Renaissance Capital.
``Oligarchs with cash will be able to use their knowledge of the business and political landscape to find the next billions,'' Aserkoff said in a research report on Oct. 6.
``The market will grow back,'' billionaire Viktor Vekselberg, 51, one of BP Plc's four partners in oil company TNK-BP and founder of Renova Group, told reporters yesterday. ``The only issue is when. I don't think it will be soon.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Yuriy Humber in Moscow at yhumber@bloomberg.net; Greg Walters in Moscow gwalters1@bloomberg.net; Maria Kolesnikova in Moscow at mkolesnikova@bloomberg.net. |
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staleek
Frequent Guest
Joined: 09 Sep 2007
Posts: 27
Location: Rochester, NY USA
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:57 pm Post subject: Ukraine |
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| Quote: | (AP) - Worried Ukrainians pulled money from banks Oct. 15 as the government headed into talks with an International Monetary Fund delegation about getting help with the country's financial troubles.
The government, which must also deal with a political crisis, is struggling to support the hryvna currency in the face of the world financial meltdown, as investor money flees emerging markets and orders fall for the country's chief export commodity, steel.
Bank analysts say the country should weather the crisis, but some Ukrainians were not waiting to see how it turns out and rushed to empty their accounts. Many people lost their life savings in the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, of which now-independent Ukraine was once part.
"There were these rumors and I decided not to wait," said Lyudmila Kudinova, 49, who withdrew 10,000 hryvna from her account at a downtown office of the Khreshchatyk bank Wednesday and immediately converted it into US$2,000 in U.S. currency. "There is one crisis after another."
A survey of several ATMs and bank offices in downtown Kiev found no scenes of panic or long lines. Ukraine's two most troubled banks, Prominvest and Nadra, have imposed restrictions on withdrawals.
Prominvest, which has been taken over by the government, and Nadra, which has survived thanks to a government loan, have limited ATM withdrawals to US$200, according to customers and bank officials.
Several Nadra ATMs had no cash in them Oct. 15. "Of course I am worried," said Svetlana, who declined to give her last name. She tried to withdraw 5,000 hryvna (US$1,000) from an ATM at Raiffeisen Bank Aval in the center of the capital, but was limited to just 1,000 hryvna (US$200).
Worried savers have taken out some US$1.3 billion dollars since the beginning of the month but emergency measures from the central bank appear to have slowed the withdrawals.
Serhiy Kruglik, head of the foreign relations department on the central bank, said the IMF delegation will meet with government representatives, review the measures Ukraine has taken so far and consider extending a loan.
"The financial crisis has shaken the whole world and we are no exception," Kruglik told The Associated Press. "But we have an additional problem: a political crisis."
He said the size of any loan would be decided only after consultations with the IMF delegation.
The IMF's mission follows the central bank's freeze of selected retail accounts across the country, limits on loans and measures to stabilize the hryvna. The government has also taken steps to support the country's core steel and chemical industry.
Government efforts to battle the crisis have been complicated by a deepening political crisis, as Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko defied President Viktor Yushchenko's order to call early parliamentary elections.
Tymoshenko is fighting to stay in power and avoid a third parliamentary vote in as many years.
The central bank continued its struggle to stabilize the hryvna Wednesday, after the currency fell some 20 percent last week. The government intervened and the hryvna recovered some of its losses, but was still down some 12 percent from September.
Raiffeisen Bank Aval said in a statement Oct. 15 that it had received a US$180 million loan from its Vienna-based parent, Raiffeisen Centralbank Osterreich.
Financial analysts said the banking restrictions were temporary and predicted the country would pull thorough the crisis as the central bank's emergency measures took effect.
"I think the banking system will survive and will emerge not in a bad condition compared to some other countries," said Oleg Pronin of Dragon Capital Investment Bank.
The Ukrainian stock exchange, which has plunged some 75 percent over the past year, was mixed on early trading Wednesday after closing with a minuscule 0.8 percent gain Oct. 14. |
| Quote: | (AP) - While the world's economic giants may have averted financial collapse through rescue plans and huge infusions of cash, some smaller countries like Ukraine seem to have stumbled with little help on the horizon.
Among the most vulnerable states, it seems, are some of the young democracies born after the fall of the Soviet empire, which have seen their economies race ahead under democratic rule and capitalism only to run smack into a global financial crisis.
Facing bank failures, turbulent markets and rapid inflation, Ukraine's politically fractured government imposed a series of emergency measures this week to shore up the economy.
At a news conference Tuesday, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko dodged the question of whether Ukraine was seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, which would confirm fears about the state of Ukraine's economy. Instead, she offered broad assurances that there was no need for panic.
"The Ukrainian government is doing everything possible and impossible so that the impact of the global crisis on Ukrainian life, the Ukrainian economy is minimized," Tymoshenko said.
But an IMF official in Washington, who was not authorized to speak on the record and requested anonymity, confirmed that the lending organization is sending a mission Wednesday to discuss economic policies.
While the world's major economies snap up banks and bail out brokers, many modest-sized countries don't have such deep pockets.
Hungary's currency has skidded 20 percent. Stocks have fallen in Poland. In Estonia, real estate prices have dropped 40 percent.
Iceland, where stocks fell almost 70 percent Tuesday before rebounding, is trying to negotiate a $5.5 billion loan from Russia.
Ukraine, which has been locked in a political struggle with Moscow since it elected a pro-Western government in 2004, certainly can't go begging to the Kremlin.
Ukraine's inflation rate hit 31 percent in May compared with the same month the previous year, higher than any other country except Zimbabwe and Venezuela. The government scrambled and brought it down to a somewhat less shocking 16 percent rate as of September.
Faced with global economic uncertainty, depositors in Ukraine began frantically converting their local currency into dollars after the hryvna dipped by almost 20 percent, before clawing back some lost ground.
Analysts said the fall was due to investors pulling money out of Ukraine and many other emerging markets. The rate plunge stripped the banking system of $1.3 billion in the first two weeks of October.
Some analysts say that the so-called emerging markets of the world's vibrant young capitalist economies will bounce back quickly, because many are still shaking off the effects of decades of totalitarian rule.
Even so, many seem destined to ride an economic roller coaster in the short term, as real estate bubbles burst, banks go bust and consumer spending tanks.
Anders Aslund, an economic analyst, wrote in July that Ukraine's economic plight was not as bad as that of Russia in 1998, which plunged the country into a deep, prolonged recession.
Ukraine's state budget, he pointed out, had a healthy surplus, its public foreign debt was small and its national bank was flush with foreign currency reserves worth $36 billion.
But he still saw Ukraine facing "catastrophic" consequences if it failed to get inflation under control and predicted that real estate prices could fall by half, while half of all banks might go bankrupt.
The country's two leading magazines came out with nearly identical covers this week Korrespondent showing a one-hryvna bank note going up in flames, and Focus displaying a one-hryvna coin melting down.
"Money is melting," warned Focus. "Hello crisis," Korrespondent announced.
Tymoshenko announced Oct. 14. that the government was freezing transportation costs, lowering natural gas prices and planning to cap electricity costs for the steel and chemical industries, an effort to boost the core sectors of the national economy.
The government's measures follow a central bank freeze of selected retail accounts across the country, limits on loans and other measures to stabilize the currency.
"It looks like the National Bank is in control of the situation," said Volodymyr Dinul, an analyst with Renaissance Capital. "Let us hope that everything will calm down sooner rather than later."
One key to the financial problems in Ukraine, experts say, is a falling demand for steel, the country's key export commodity. Another factor is Ukrainians' mistrust of banks, founded on their painful experience with the hyperinflation following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, which wiped out their savings.
Tymoshenko's government sought to compensate some of the losses from that long-ago crisis this year, but that proposal was stalled by her political feud with President Viktor Yushchenko.
One of the triggers for the current crisis was the trouble at two major banks, the sixth-largest Prominvest, which has been taken over by the central bank, and the seventh-largest Nadra, which has survived thanks to a $300 million central bank loan.
Fitch Ratings, a global credit rating agency, on Monday downgraded Nadra and noted that Ukrainian banks faced "challenging times" as near-term risks increased considerably.
Ukraine's main stock index, PFTS, closed with a minuscule 0.8 percent gain Tuesday, following the positive global trend and reacting to the government efforts. The stock market has lost nearly 70 percent since the beginning of this year, after a record 130 percent rise in 2007.
Independent financial analyst Geoff Smith said an aid package adopted by the G-7 leaders bodes well for Ukrainian banks, since European banks had stakes in nearly half of local banks.
"After the G-7 rescue plan, I am cautiously optimistic the Ukrainian banking system will in general withstand the crisis," said Smith.
Others remained concerned, saying the central bank's drastic measures showed the banking sector was in deep trouble.
The crisis has been aggravated by Ukraine's political deadlock, and the current crisis over control of parliament. That crisis deepened Tuesday, after Tymoshenko refused to heed Yushchenko's order and release government money to pay for early parliamentary elections he called for Dec. 7.
Tymoshenko, seen as Yushchenko's rival in the 2010 presidential vote, is battling to retain her office and avoid a third parliamentary ballot in three years. Yushchenko is determined to push through with the election and has abolished a court that froze election preparations |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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Next to start collapsing is small Russian banks and real estate will drop about about 20-40%
Unfortunately, the Georgian war has a cost and that is the trust of the world. Oil is now down to 76 a barrel. KGB tactics does not work in the Capitalist economy.
Increased bank regulations is needed now. Increase deposits security should be done also.
Where Nikir and Ender to tell me how full of it I am. |
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Shadow
Frequent Guest
Joined: 14 Sep 2008
Posts: 12
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | | So maybe they should nationalize all the companies |
Not all the companies. Only the strategic ones. It's is better for a country that strategic companies (the richest) be nationalized than owned by foreigners. Look at poor countries like Angola and Nigeria. A lot of oil and a lot of... poverty! Because their wealth is not nationalized. |
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Ender
WayToRussified
Joined: 23 Aug 2006
Posts: 479
Location: Urals
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | Unfortunately, the Georgian war has a cost and that is the trust of the world. Oil is now down to 76 a barrel. KGB tactics does not work in the Capitalist economy.
Increased bank regulations is needed now. Increase deposits security should be done also.
Where Nikir and Ender to tell me how full of it I am. |
Paul, are you idiot? Tell me please what kind of cost for example Australia pays? Their dollar fell more than 20% in two months against Russian rouble. Japanese withdrew their investments from Australian market. Remind to me please what country was counquered by Australia last months. Or maybe Iceland for example was at war with someone? Attributing cost of oil or financical crisis solely to war in Georgia, just plain stupid.
About bank regulations and deposits security. Recently some steps were taken.
Oh yes, please keep telling that scary KGB tales. And again please don't tell about entrie world. To be precise please change word "world" to word "NATO", your beloved bloody NATO full of warhawks. Russians joke: "Life ends beyond the MKAD" can be rephrased "World ends beyond the borders of NATO". |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:21 pm Post subject: |
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You are the Fn idiot. I told you that the stock market was going to collapse in Russia and it has. I told you that Ukraine was in serious trouble and their 6 &7 largest banks got bought out by central bank. Gazprom bank bought a bank recently for 4000 roubles (I think), can you say collapse? REal Estate is next and the small banks starts to die. Oil is down to 70 and soon as it hits 60, then Russia has a negative trade deficit and cash will flow will be outside of Russia.
Ukraine is in horrible condition that idiot Viktor Yushchenko will take the country to the grave.
5 banks have failed in Russia so far.
Olirachs are leveraged up to their asses and have lost an estimate of 260 billion dollars.
Real Estate is over valued by 50%
Tic tic tic tic.
You are just nationalist twit and would follow Putin to your grave.
MICEX is down another 12% before they suspend it again and another bank has collapsed. |
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Paul Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1071
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:12 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | MOSCOW, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Russia's Rosevrobank, a mid-sized lender, has asked clients to pay back their mortgages right away rather than risk the prospect of real estate prices falling 30 percent, the bank said on Friday.
"We are warning clients that they are in a crisis situation, that we are in this situation with them, and that both of us need to create a certain pillow of support," Elena Safyanova, the bank's head of communications, told Reuters.
With the credit crunch showing no signs of abating, many Russian companies from the largest conglomerates to the smallest retail chains have been taking desperate measures to raise cash.
Safyanova said her bank is in good financial shape and had recently paid back the first tranche due on a loan for $150 million.
But she said borrowers would be better off paying back their mortgages now, as their financial well-being could quickly deteriorate given the present state of the economy.
"There is also a crisis on the labour market, so they may be left without work or have their pay cut ... We should all try to close our debts now before it's too late," she said.
30 PERCENT DROP
Rosevrobank's chairman Ilya Brodsky said that dropping property values are eating away at the value of the mortgage loans' collateral, which is usually the property itself.
"If the collateral loses its value, becomes worthless, the bank has to take steps to make the borrower compensate for that," he said in a statement. "Some of the largest real estate agencies are forecasting at least a 30 percent drop in property values."
Safyanova said the bank has the right to change the loan agreement unilaterally if the value of the collateral falls but in practice the bank would try to work with clients to renegotiate the terms to allow for early repayment.
Garegin Tosunyan, the head of the Association of Russian Banks, a lobbying group, said that in troubled times this practice is understandable.
"They are worried that these [loans] will make trouble for them later, so they are hedging their risks. But this doesn't mean people are going to start ripping up contracts," Tosunyan said on Ekho Moskvy radio.
Several Russian banks have frozen or suspended their mortage lending operations as a growing chorus of analysts predict that a bubble has formed in Moscow's housing market, and sooner or later it will burst.
In a recent note to investors, Moscow brokerage Unicredit compared the housing market in Russia with that of the United States, where soaring prices and risky lending have led to a collapse that infected the wider global economy. (Editing by Greg Mahlich) |
Ender, do you hear it? Tic tic tic tic. |
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Absurd
Frequent Guest
Joined: 22 Apr 2008
Posts: 28
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| Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | | You are the Fn idiot. I told you that the stock market was going to collapse in Russia and it has. |
Make fun of Ender if you wish, but i don't expect than Russian economy will behave as predicted. It is 'cargo-cult capitalism' 2 my mind, i.e it's just attempt to imitate Western-style without innate understanding mechanisms having place behind it. So, i wouldn't say that Russian stock market play the same role in the life of the country as it do in the US & EU. |
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