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mister_wizzz
VIP
Joined: 27 May 2004
Posts: 582
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 Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Ender wrote: | | Paul Holmes wrote: | | Georgia war scared investors into taking money out of Russia. It was the first big push to get money of the country. |
So I asking what war scared Japanese investors who take their investments from Australia and Australian dollar fell 40% within same monts as war in South Ossetia? What wars Ukraine and Iceland (This is just examples. I'm sure if we look at other developing countries we'll find similar situation) participated in?
Was this war the only cause? Was it major cause or insignificant? Why other countries suffer also if they didn't participated in wars? |
I think financial crisis harmed much more Russia than this war, but a war is never good for the economy of a country.
Anyway, Russia's problem is its economy is mainly based on oil and mineral ressources and this financial crisis will show how weak russian industry is.
I think Russia will suffer much more than countries with a strong industry. A good example is UK, before the crisis, their PIB was stronger than France, the British sacrificed large parts of their industry (naval ship, car, steel industries) on behalf to financial trading. The result is when everybody took his money back when things started badly, the british PIB felt down behind Italian PIB.
Mmmmm, I think I will see much less Brits and Russians in french ski resorts this winter... |
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Paul-Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1073
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| Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 8:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Ender wrote: | | Paul Holmes wrote: | | Georgia war scared investors into taking money out of Russia. It was the first big push to get money of the country. |
So I asking what war scared Japanese investors who take their investments from Australia and Australian dollar fell 40% within same monts as war in South Ossetia? What wars Ukraine and Iceland (This is just examples. I'm sure if we look at other developing countries we'll find similar situation) participated in?
Was this war the only cause? Was it major cause or insignificant? Why other countries suffer also if they didn't participated in wars? |
I think you should read more. When Russia invaded Georgia, foreign investment fled Russia, thus devaluating the Ruble. The government had to interfere to prop the currency and start to use its reserves to buy back Rubles. Until this, Russia was building good relations and attract foreign investment. If you look at the average Russian companies balance sheet, it is high levered (lots of debt) and they have many loans in foreign banks. When the banks got scared, they called the loans. Ignorant Russian politicians ignored this and even then continued to spend money on increased military (70 billion dollars) and even was thinking about loaning money to Iceland. That is when they realize that they are in trouble.
Iceland was because they were also highly levered so much that it failed.
Ukraine, well when you try to keep with Russia in your habits in spending, but do not have the resource base for it, then you are in trouble. Ukraine had no control over its banking system and loaned so much money that it cannot pay it back.
BTW should we go back to your comments about the economic crisis and show the world that you and Nikir were completely wrong.
Right now, Russia is going to give the greedy Oligarchs 78 billion to save these badly run companies. |
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Ender
WayToRussified
Joined: 23 Aug 2006
Posts: 498
Location: Urals
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| Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | | I think you should read more. |
I used to read Guardian and Financial Times. I can remember very small amount of positive articles about Russia written by non-russian journalists. Others are blatantly russophobic.
| Paul Holmes wrote: | | When Russia invaded Georgia, |
When Georgia killed Russian peacekeepers and de facto declared war on Russia...
| Paul Holmes wrote: | | foreign investment fled Russia, thus devaluating the Ruble. |
Again... It looks like you either completely didn't understand questsion or avoided it.
Ok. Let's assume that Russia was punished. You insist that, so be it. It was told to forget about its national interests, but it didn't. For russian guys it means: no (or less) Salomon shoes, no (or less) Volkswagen Passat, no (or less) Turkey vacations, no (or less) Carte Noir, no (or less) vegetables from Holland, etc... etc... etc. Guess what it means for those who produce these goods and services? Who did they punished?
My mother has recently said that their company refused to sign contracts with two Canadian compaines because of currency rates change and hardened conditions. Two other companies (one Russian and one Ukrainian) was contacted instead. Guess who lost?
I've just returned from local food shop. Frozen vegetables. Pre Yew prices: Hortex (Poland, ~30% of market) ~ 36 roubles, 4 seasons (Russia, ~25% of market) ~ 36 roubles. Now: Hortex ~ 51 roubles, 4 seasons ~ 37 roubles. BTW, Poles ones who were most hysterical about "Russian invasion".
Last edited by Ender on Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:44 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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bernhard_riemann
Frequent Guest
Joined: 15 Sep 2004
Posts: 41
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| Posted: Sat Jan 03, 2009 4:50 pm Post subject: If I may jump on the economic bandwagon here: |
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The Russian economy could have been more durable. It's reliance on natural resources as the main source of income had been predicted for years as problem. The lack of diversity in an economy could have been prevented if more trust with foreign investors had been created.
Compare Russia with Dubai, which does not rely on natural resources but on an open trading economy.
There are corporations out there that have offices in London, US, Tokyo, Singapore. There may be a lot of wealth in Russia in certain concentration but a lot of these global corporations are staying away from Russia. I only recall Allianz trying get business with Russian millionaires. I sum, shareholders can't get their capital back. Bob Kraft can't get Super Bowl ring back even by asking nicely.
My main concern is that the whole problem can be blamed on the government. From a fly on the on the other side of the world, it was really scary to hear a strange quote from Medved:
"Russia is a nation to be reckoned with".
Medved is 100% correct here, now who will hire Russians? Imagine that quote on a resume. People should be open and admit or acknowledge their mistakes. That quote was a huge mistake.
Russia has a great natural resource of an educated society. While India has Wipro, and campuses for Google, Microsoft, Dell--I can't really say that Russia has something similar. I think that the trust is not there for there to be any relationship.
The U.S. economy is not actually that bad, and the problems are temporary. A lot of the jobs that were lost were complete unnecessary anyway based on a consumer economy. Bank of America predicts some point in the 3rd quarter this year the U.S. economy will bottom and others agree. Everyone is pretty existential now, and the worry here is going away.
Made in China used to mean the brand is terrible. Maybe someday Russia could change too. The fact that this accredited "professor" got be big news in the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere is pathetic. Would you hire this man? Would you buy a car from this man? The fact that people would build this man up is depressing.
I'll admit I could be wrong. |
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Paul-Holmes
Lounge Wizard
Joined: 12 Apr 2005
Posts: 1073
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| Posted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:32 am Post subject: Re: If I may jump on the economic bandwagon here: |
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| bernhard_riemann wrote: | The Russian economy could have been more durable. It's reliance on natural resources as the main source of income had been predicted for years as problem. The lack of diversity in an economy could have been prevented if more trust with foreign investors had been created.
Compare Russia with Dubai, which does not rely on natural resources but on an open trading economy.
There are corporations out there that have offices in London, US, Tokyo, Singapore. There may be a lot of wealth in Russia in certain concentration but a lot of these global corporations are staying away from Russia. I only recall Allianz trying get business with Russian millionaires. I sum, shareholders can't get their capital back. Bob Kraft can't get Super Bowl ring back even by asking nicely.
My main concern is that the whole problem can be blamed on the government. From a fly on the on the other side of the world, it was really scary to hear a strange quote from Medved:
"Russia is a nation to be reckoned with".
Medved is 100% correct here, now who will hire Russians? Imagine that quote on a resume. People should be open and admit or acknowledge their mistakes. That quote was a huge mistake.
Russia has a great natural resource of an educated society. While India has Wipro, and campuses for Google, Microsoft, Dell--I can't really say that Russia has something similar. I think that the trust is not there for there to be any relationship.
The U.S. economy is not actually that bad, and the problems are temporary. A lot of the jobs that were lost were complete unnecessary anyway based on a consumer economy. Bank of America predicts some point in the 3rd quarter this year the U.S. economy will bottom and others agree. Everyone is pretty existential now, and the worry here is going away.
Made in China used to mean the brand is terrible. Maybe someday Russia could change too. The fact that this accredited "professor" got be big news in the Wall Street Journal, and elsewhere is pathetic. Would you hire this man? Would you buy a car from this man? The fact that people would build this man up is depressing.
I'll admit I could be wrong. |
I agree and disagree. Russia's economy is not that bad, but it is the distrust and they live for today attitude that kills the country. When people gave a credit, they abused it, especially the Oligrachs. Oil companies are still profitable, but since they believe the good times will always continue, they spent like no tomorrow.
But again, here you are getting upset about a Russian man bashing the USA. Well if you read the media in the USA, Russia is constantly getting bashed over and over again (whether deserved or not). Many of the same things that the USA can bash the Russia, can be turned against the USA. War in Georgia, War in Iraq, Weak Banking systems, Pompous President leader who is self serving, Greedy Businessmen, Over spending by the average person.
I am not Putin or Oligarch fan, but Russia has made significant improvements in the banking system and how they do business. Even look how they are handling the Gaz crisis with Ukraine. It is much different then before.
If you think that the problem with USA is over then think again. American people has been negative savers for the longest time and they were forced in a corner to pay up. Who rescued them? the government, but they have been over spenders also and they will eventually have to pay. Tell me in democracy, can you tell the voters the truth that they have to live with less and be more frugal. That every American can't live in house with a white picket fence. You just do not get elected this way. |
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bernhard_riemann
Frequent Guest
Joined: 15 Sep 2004
Posts: 41
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| Posted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 5:56 am Post subject: back on the ground again |
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If you think that the problem with USA is over then think again. American people has been negative savers for the longest time and they were forced in a corner to pay up. Who rescued them? the government, but they have been over spenders also and they will eventually have to pay. Tell me in democracy, can you tell the voters the truth that they have to live with less and be more frugal. That every American can't live in house with a white picket fence. You just do not get elected this way.
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My comments were amateur and I'll admit I was wrong. It was still rather shameful this professor received any media coverage at all.
| Quote: | | Well if you read the media in the USA, Russia is constantly getting bashed over and over again (whether deserved or not) |
I have a different point of view. Russia is not really getting bashed here unfairly in the United States. There really is not much news that comes out of that country anyway. The war with Georgia was played out on YouTube for all to see and many of the news sources had been local in Europe, like BBC and not from USA. When Russia intervenes in Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba to recreate historical events intentionally to draw attention and fear--it was a real distraction. The cold war currently appears very real, scary, and newsworthy. The statements by the professor in a larger picture are more scary than comical.
| Quote: | | But again, here you are getting upset about a Russian man bashing the USA. |
I guess that was easily discerned, and I should be more careful in my thoughts. It really is a shame though that people want to create divisions when there is no reason to disturb the peace. From missile defense to this professor's statements--things have gotten worse. |
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EricP
Frequent Guest
Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 10
Location: Moscow or Texas
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| Posted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 6:09 am Post subject: Re: Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. |
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| Paul Holmes wrote: | | gomer wrote: | http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
"Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S."
Well, what do you think? |
Now you should read American quacks like An Coulter. People do not spew when some loud mouth American writes carp, but when a Russian who spews the same garbage, makes news. |
This is so true. Somehow I got on Idiot Ann's email list and her crap makes me gag. I wonder if it somehow got circulated in Russia, would average Americans believe average Russians believe Coulter as much as Americans believe Russians believe the crazy professor?
(The first sentance I've ever said or written with the word believe said 4 times! -- Russians - note how we use the indefinite article) |
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